By Phil Izzo
America’s torrid love affair with credit cards continues to cool off, but it’s still unclear which side — banks or consumers — has decided to take it slow.
From 1968, when the Federal Reserve started tracking the data, to its peak in September 2008 the amount of revolving, or credit-card, debt outstanding for U.S. consumers posted a near-uninterrupted rise. With the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the onset of a credit crisis came the first steady decline. The amount of revolving credit outstanding is 15% lower than the peak level and has posted a monthly decline in each of the last 20 months.
On Thursday, the Fed reported that revolving credit declined by $7.32 billion to $830.83 billion in May. The question is: why has it dropped? One explanation could be consumers constrained by the weakest job market in a generation is leading more people to default on their debt. Delinquencies jumped after the onset of the credit crisis at the same time as revolving credit began its contraction. But in recent months the delinquency rate has improved substantially, and yet borrowing continues to decline.
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Are banks or consumers aiming to slow down? That leaves two other explanations: Americans are paying down debt and not taking on more, or banks are offering less credit to consumers. Both are likely happening to some degree. If consumers are paying more money to credit, it has to be coming out of disposable income. The Commerce Department has noted that the U.S. saving rate has risen from lows seen earlier in the 2000s, but still remains far below levels recorded in the 1970s and 1980s.
Meanwhile, banks in April told the Fed’s senior loan officer survey that they continued to tighten lending standards and terms for credit cards, while some noted reductions in credit limits. And that came more than a year after the credit crisis hit.
Though both sides of the credit-card love affair are cooling off, banks seem to be more inclined to take a break.