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omney Taes Lead On Economy
Mitt Romney has advanced to a slight lead over Barack Obama in trust to handle the economy, and Obama has slipped beneath a clear majority in who better understands the public’s economic problems – two key metrics of the 2012 presidential race.
These trends in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll aren’t strong enough to change current preferences, nor is the 2-1 view that Obama won Monday night’s final debate. But they’re among the underlying dynamics making the race seem closer now than a month ago.
See PDF with full results and charts here.
The candidates remain essentially tied, with 49 percent of likely voters for Romney, 48 percent for Obama in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. That includes vast and sharpening gaps among some groups, with highs for both candidates among core supporters.
One example is white men, in particular those who lack a college degree; almost all of the recent shifts in trust on the economy and perceived economic empathy have occurred in this group. Romney’s support among white men is its highest of the campaign, a 2-1 margin, 65-32 percent. That compares with 57-41 percent, McCain-Obama, in the 2008 exit poll.
While it’s closer among white women, 53-44 percent, Romney-Obama, that very broad support among white men lifts Romney to a new high among whites overall, 59 percent. And it expands the gender gap to a new high as well: A 17-point lead for Romney among men, 57-40 percent, compared with a 15-point advantage for Obama among women, 56-41 percent.
And it’s men, compared to four years ago, who are making it close. Obama beat John McCain among women in 2008 by 13 points, similar to his margin over Romney today. But McCain only tied Obama among men, a far cry from Romney’s large advantage in this group now.
Obama pushes back among other groups. One example is Hispanics, whom Obama described as crucial to his re-election in a Des Moines Register interview released today. While they make up a small share of the national electorate in this survey, 8 percent (about the same as in 2008), Obama is supported by 75 percent of Hispanics – a new high this season, and more than his 67 percent in the 2008 exit poll. They indeed could be critical in close states, or in those with larger concentrations of Hispanic voters.
Obama, additionally, is winning a near-unanimous 95 percent support from blacks, and 79 percent of nonwhites overall, matching his high of the 2012 campaign. Nonwhites account for 24 percent of likely voters in this survey – very close to their 2008 turnout, 26 percent.
THE ECONOMY – While preferences among groups – and their turnout – will determine the outcome, concerns about the economy are driving this contest, and there Romney has made gradual progress. Likely voters now pick him over Obama by 50-44 percent as the candidate they trust to do a better job handling the economy, a slight but marginally significant lead for Romney for the first time since late August.
As noted, that shift has occurred almost entirely among white men: They favor Romney over Obama on the economy by a 35-point margin now (65-30 percent), compared with 19 points in mid-October (57-38 percent). There’s been essentially no change in the same period among white women (+14 points for Romney in trust to handle the economy) or among all nonwhites (+51 points for Obama).
While Obama never has had a clear lead overall in trust to handle the economy, he’s usually prevailed in another measure, which candidate better understands the economic problems of ordinary Americans. On this, however, he’s gone from a 9-point advantage (51-42 percent) in mid-October to 50-45 percent now – a 5-point differential that is not statistically significant given this survey’s margin of sampling error. As with trust to handle the economy, Obama hasn’t scored this weakly relative to Romney on economic empathy since late August, just before the party conventions.
The shift on empathy, as with trust on the economy, has occurred almost exclusively among white men, moving from a non-significant 8-point tilt to Romney on this question in mid-October to a 26-point margin now. Views among white women and nonwhites on economic empathy, again, are essentially unchanged.
Drilling further, these shifts, in both cases, have occurred disproportionately among a specific group of white men – those who lack a college degree. They expressed greater trust in Romney to handle the economy by 24 points in mid-October, but do so by a 47-point margin now. And on economic empathy the margin for Romney among less-educated white men has moved from 13 points in mid-October to 40 points now.
DEBATE THIS – These trends may mitigate whatever benefit Obama sought to take from the third and final presidential debate – given, especially, the apparent lasting benefit to Romney of his performance in the first debate.
Using single-night survey results from last night, likely voters by 48-24 percent say Obama won the third debate. Nonetheless, they also say by a 21-point margin, 37-16 percent, that as a result of all three debates together, their opinion of Romney has gotten better rather than worse. Obama gets just a split decision on the same better/worse question, 16 percent vs. 18 percent. (The rest say their opinions didn’t change.)
PERFORMANCE and ENTHUSIASM – Obama’s overall job approval rating among likely voters stands at 50 percent, a challenging number albeit not one that precludes re-election. Another result, though, indicates his difficulties compared with four years ago: At his apex in 2008, 71 percent of his supporters said they were “very” enthusiastic about his candidacy. It’s 60 percent now, essentially the same as Romney’s strong enthusiasm (which, as noted yesterday, well surpasses John McCain’s in ’08.)
These measures return the discussion to turnout, and that’s not just a question for Election Day. Seven percent of likely voters say in fact they’ve already voted, and they divide almost precisely evenly between Obama and Romney; an additional 28 percent say they’re going to vote early, but haven’t yet. The race among early voters and Election Day voters alike is close – within the margin of sampling error in both cases – raising the question of whether Obama, who far outpaced McCain among early voters in 2008, can replicate the feat this time.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 20-23, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,394 likely voters, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including design effect. (Questions 19-20 were asked Oct. 23 among 357 likely voters; those results have a 6.5-point error margin.) The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Partisan divisions in this survey, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 34-30-32 percent among likely voters. Partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll were 39-32-29 percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/romney-takes-lead-on-economy-white-men-are-the-movers/
These trends in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll aren’t strong enough to change current preferences, nor is the 2-1 view that Obama won Monday night’s final debate. But they’re among the underlying dynamics making the race seem closer now than a month ago.
See PDF with full results and charts here.
The candidates remain essentially tied, with 49 percent of likely voters for Romney, 48 percent for Obama in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. That includes vast and sharpening gaps among some groups, with highs for both candidates among core supporters.
One example is white men, in particular those who lack a college degree; almost all of the recent shifts in trust on the economy and perceived economic empathy have occurred in this group. Romney’s support among white men is its highest of the campaign, a 2-1 margin, 65-32 percent. That compares with 57-41 percent, McCain-Obama, in the 2008 exit poll.
While it’s closer among white women, 53-44 percent, Romney-Obama, that very broad support among white men lifts Romney to a new high among whites overall, 59 percent. And it expands the gender gap to a new high as well: A 17-point lead for Romney among men, 57-40 percent, compared with a 15-point advantage for Obama among women, 56-41 percent.
And it’s men, compared to four years ago, who are making it close. Obama beat John McCain among women in 2008 by 13 points, similar to his margin over Romney today. But McCain only tied Obama among men, a far cry from Romney’s large advantage in this group now.
Obama pushes back among other groups. One example is Hispanics, whom Obama described as crucial to his re-election in a Des Moines Register interview released today. While they make up a small share of the national electorate in this survey, 8 percent (about the same as in 2008), Obama is supported by 75 percent of Hispanics – a new high this season, and more than his 67 percent in the 2008 exit poll. They indeed could be critical in close states, or in those with larger concentrations of Hispanic voters.
Obama, additionally, is winning a near-unanimous 95 percent support from blacks, and 79 percent of nonwhites overall, matching his high of the 2012 campaign. Nonwhites account for 24 percent of likely voters in this survey – very close to their 2008 turnout, 26 percent.
THE ECONOMY – While preferences among groups – and their turnout – will determine the outcome, concerns about the economy are driving this contest, and there Romney has made gradual progress. Likely voters now pick him over Obama by 50-44 percent as the candidate they trust to do a better job handling the economy, a slight but marginally significant lead for Romney for the first time since late August.
As noted, that shift has occurred almost entirely among white men: They favor Romney over Obama on the economy by a 35-point margin now (65-30 percent), compared with 19 points in mid-October (57-38 percent). There’s been essentially no change in the same period among white women (+14 points for Romney in trust to handle the economy) or among all nonwhites (+51 points for Obama).
While Obama never has had a clear lead overall in trust to handle the economy, he’s usually prevailed in another measure, which candidate better understands the economic problems of ordinary Americans. On this, however, he’s gone from a 9-point advantage (51-42 percent) in mid-October to 50-45 percent now – a 5-point differential that is not statistically significant given this survey’s margin of sampling error. As with trust to handle the economy, Obama hasn’t scored this weakly relative to Romney on economic empathy since late August, just before the party conventions.
The shift on empathy, as with trust on the economy, has occurred almost exclusively among white men, moving from a non-significant 8-point tilt to Romney on this question in mid-October to a 26-point margin now. Views among white women and nonwhites on economic empathy, again, are essentially unchanged.
Drilling further, these shifts, in both cases, have occurred disproportionately among a specific group of white men – those who lack a college degree. They expressed greater trust in Romney to handle the economy by 24 points in mid-October, but do so by a 47-point margin now. And on economic empathy the margin for Romney among less-educated white men has moved from 13 points in mid-October to 40 points now.
DEBATE THIS – These trends may mitigate whatever benefit Obama sought to take from the third and final presidential debate – given, especially, the apparent lasting benefit to Romney of his performance in the first debate.
Using single-night survey results from last night, likely voters by 48-24 percent say Obama won the third debate. Nonetheless, they also say by a 21-point margin, 37-16 percent, that as a result of all three debates together, their opinion of Romney has gotten better rather than worse. Obama gets just a split decision on the same better/worse question, 16 percent vs. 18 percent. (The rest say their opinions didn’t change.)
PERFORMANCE and ENTHUSIASM – Obama’s overall job approval rating among likely voters stands at 50 percent, a challenging number albeit not one that precludes re-election. Another result, though, indicates his difficulties compared with four years ago: At his apex in 2008, 71 percent of his supporters said they were “very” enthusiastic about his candidacy. It’s 60 percent now, essentially the same as Romney’s strong enthusiasm (which, as noted yesterday, well surpasses John McCain’s in ’08.)
These measures return the discussion to turnout, and that’s not just a question for Election Day. Seven percent of likely voters say in fact they’ve already voted, and they divide almost precisely evenly between Obama and Romney; an additional 28 percent say they’re going to vote early, but haven’t yet. The race among early voters and Election Day voters alike is close – within the margin of sampling error in both cases – raising the question of whether Obama, who far outpaced McCain among early voters in 2008, can replicate the feat this time.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 20-23, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,394 likely voters, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including design effect. (Questions 19-20 were asked Oct. 23 among 357 likely voters; those results have a 6.5-point error margin.) The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Partisan divisions in this survey, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 34-30-32 percent among likely voters. Partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll were 39-32-29 percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/romney-takes-lead-on-economy-white-men-are-the-movers/
I'm ignoring the polls but if the only thing you watch is Fox, you aren't going to see anything other than pro-Romney.
That was a joke!!!
That was a joke!!!
LOL, you cannot trust polls, period. Its all to keep your attention. This thing is going to be up and down and all around in the coming week. The only ones that count are those who actually turn out to vote. Doesn't matter what likely or registered voters say in small groups. Its just a snapshot and it has too many variables.
I'm ignoring the polls but if the only thing you watch is Fox, you aren't going to see anything other than pro-Romney.
mike...thanks for explaining.
I DO understand, and I wouldn't discount any poll because I didnt like the results.
My point being, the other polls have a pretty thorough process as well, I just find that Nate's results vary enough to kind of stand up and take notice, you know? I think it's virtually impossible at this point, like we've all said, to find any source who is 100% TOTALLY unbiased. That's next to impossible. In in speaking of non-political stories. The media loves drama, that's their job. They are out for ratings as much as General Hospital is...so they will slant the hell out of ANY story to get the viewers.
My fave is the breaking news story always being "next", or "after this commercial break". Damn a$$holes, they MAKE me keep watching. Such sneaky jerks. ;0)
Like I said, just the margin of error on ANY poll in a close race like this is enough to throw it either way.
I appreciate the info, none the less, thanks.
"I just can't take the emotional roller coaster anymore. I'm up, I'm down, I'm down, I'm a little up and then back down. "
I know, my friend...enough to make you throw up, isn't it? Sheesh!
I DO understand, and I wouldn't discount any poll because I didnt like the results.
My point being, the other polls have a pretty thorough process as well, I just find that Nate's results vary enough to kind of stand up and take notice, you know? I think it's virtually impossible at this point, like we've all said, to find any source who is 100% TOTALLY unbiased. That's next to impossible. In in speaking of non-political stories. The media loves drama, that's their job. They are out for ratings as much as General Hospital is...so they will slant the hell out of ANY story to get the viewers.
My fave is the breaking news story always being "next", or "after this commercial break". Damn a$$holes, they MAKE me keep watching. Such sneaky jerks. ;0)
Like I said, just the margin of error on ANY poll in a close race like this is enough to throw it either way.
I appreciate the info, none the less, thanks.
"I just can't take the emotional roller coaster anymore. I'm up, I'm down, I'm down, I'm a little up and then back down. "
I know, my friend...enough to make you throw up, isn't it? Sheesh!
I'm going with the horse race theory and turning off the screen so you don't know until the minute (or day after) the race is over.
I just can't take the emotional roller coaster anymore. I'm up, I'm down, I'm down, I'm a little up and then back down.
I just can't take the emotional roller coaster anymore. I'm up, I'm down, I'm down, I'm a little up and then back down.
Thanks for the advice and I appreciate it.
there is a good bit of difference between his numbers and the rest of the polls.
You apparently don't understand Nate's methodology. He weighs ALL OF THE POLLS - he is not a pollster. He weighs all of the different polls and applies the numbers to his model. You are free to believe whatever you choose, of course. I don't like Nate Silver's blog because he has Obama ahead. I like it because it is intellectually stimulating and has proven to be very accurate. Though I would not like to see him with Romney ahead I sure wouldn't discount it just because I didn't like his result. It is what it is and we'll know how accurate all of the forecasters are soon enough.
You apparently don't understand Nate's methodology. He weighs ALL OF THE POLLS - he is not a pollster. He weighs all of the different polls and applies the numbers to his model. You are free to believe whatever you choose, of course. I don't like Nate Silver's blog because he has Obama ahead. I like it because it is intellectually stimulating and has proven to be very accurate. Though I would not like to see him with Romney ahead I sure wouldn't discount it just because I didn't like his result. It is what it is and we'll know how accurate all of the forecasters are soon enough.
LOL!!! Funny stuff!!! LMAO!
Mike, while I appreciate his process, and respect how he calculates these figures, and don't take away from his intellect, there is a good bit of difference between his numbers and the rest of the polls. Is that difference his slight liberal slant? If so, then it makes sense.
With the margins of error most polls have, you're going to see different polls go different ways.
Hey, I know these polls aren't going to mean a thing until we see what happens for ourselves. If Obama was ahead by 20% or even 10%, then it would be a no brainer.
I think, for now....I'll just keep an eye on the poll numbers that Fox is reporting. ;0)
Mike, while I appreciate his process, and respect how he calculates these figures, and don't take away from his intellect, there is a good bit of difference between his numbers and the rest of the polls. Is that difference his slight liberal slant? If so, then it makes sense.
With the margins of error most polls have, you're going to see different polls go different ways.
Hey, I know these polls aren't going to mean a thing until we see what happens for ourselves. If Obama was ahead by 20% or even 10%, then it would be a no brainer.
I think, for now....I'll just keep an eye on the poll numbers that Fox is reporting. ;0)
Well, I must say I do agree with both of you el and vance. Its a real nail biter!
I'm with you on this on Brother... I think we're all going to wake up on November 7th, and NOT know who the President is.
I said it a few weeks ago, "Recount! Recount! Recount!" will be hearing that from the rooftops come the morning of the 7th.
I said it a few weeks ago, "Recount! Recount! Recount!" will be hearing that from the rooftops come the morning of the 7th.
It is hard to tell which poll is going to be right, isn't it? I'm doing my best not to look. What will be will be.
It really is best to simply ignore him.
Engage him and you only have a fight on your hands.
We know he only posts from the extreme right, why even bother trying to talk sense ?
Engage him and you only have a fight on your hands.
We know he only posts from the extreme right, why even bother trying to talk sense ?
Yeah vance - I'm going to believe you on that?
Not a chance - there's no way you're going to read Nate Silver's site and understand it.
I believe that Nursegirl could and that's why I suggested that she visit the site.
You? I know better than that. Nate Silver is much too erudite for you.
You're well advised to stick with the fair and balanced synopsis gruel they feed you at fox
Not a chance - there's no way you're going to read Nate Silver's site and understand it.
I believe that Nursegirl could and that's why I suggested that she visit the site.
You? I know better than that. Nate Silver is much too erudite for you.
You're well advised to stick with the fair and balanced synopsis gruel they feed you at fox
Daily Kos...yeah he is slightly for the Dems...that's like saying Rush is slightly for the Repubs.
So he got the 2008 correct, wow. Most polls got 2008 correct. It was a no brainer.
Rasmussen has been the only fair and consistant poll for years now.
So he got the 2008 correct, wow. Most polls got 2008 correct. It was a no brainer.
Rasmussen has been the only fair and consistant poll for years now.
I'm ignoring the polls. They flip flop worse than, um,let's see, um, my flip flops.
My friend in Ohio says she won't answer the phone and it's ringing non-stop.
My friend in Ohio says she won't answer the phone and it's ringing non-stop.
You may not agree with or like Nate Silver's conclusions but I doubt you can effectively attack his methodology or, for that matter, his track record. While he does admit to having a slight democratic bias his analysis is based on statistical models and his only goal is accuracy. He did the same thing extremely successfully with baseball. Take some time and read his blog and I believe you'll be very impressed with his analysis.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
From Wikipedia:
"....In 2007, writing under the pseudonym "Poblano", Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.
The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year....."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
From Wikipedia:
"....In 2007, writing under the pseudonym "Poblano", Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.
The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year....."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver
Part of the confusion (and part of the reason behind the perception that Mr. Romney is still gaining ground in the race) may be because of the headlines that accompany polls.
I'm sorry, but I disagree. I think the numbers speak for themselves. He has either erased Obama's lead, or even taken the lead in more than one area. Of course, all the polls vary slightly, but among the ones that seem the most "fair", it seems as though jhe's still got that momentum.
Time will tell I guess.
I'm sorry, but I disagree. I think the numbers speak for themselves. He has either erased Obama's lead, or even taken the lead in more than one area. Of course, all the polls vary slightly, but among the ones that seem the most "fair", it seems as though jhe's still got that momentum.
Time will tell I guess.
Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped
By NATE SILVER
The term “momentum” is used very often in political coverage — but reporters and analysts seldom pause to consider what it means.
Let me tell you what I think it ought to mean: that a body in motion tends to stay in motion. That is, it ought to imply that a candidate is gaining ground in the race — and, furthermore, that he is likely to continue to gain ground.
As a thesis or prediction about how polls behave, this notion is a bit dubious, especially in general elections. In races for the United States Senate, for instance, my research suggests that a candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month (say, from August to September) is no more likely to do so during the next one (from September to October). If anything, the candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month may be more likely to lose ground the next time around.
(Where might there be clearer evidence for momentum, as I’ve defined it? In primaries, especially when there are multiple candidates in the race and voters are behaving tactically in choosing among them. But there is little evidence of it in general elections.)
The way the term “momentum” is applied in practice by the news media, however, it usually refers only to the first part of the clause — meaning simply that a candidate has been gaining ground in the polls, whether or not he might continue to do so. (I’ve used this phrasing plenty of times myself, so I have no real basis to complain about it.)
But there are other times when the notion of momentum is behind the curve — as it probably now is if applied to Mitt Romney’s polling.
Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.
Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.
This is the closest that we’ve come in a week or so to one candidate clearly having “won” the day in the tracking polls — and it was Mr. Obama.
The trend could also be spurious. If the race is steady, it’s not that hard for one candidate to gain ground in five of six polls (excluding the two that showed no movement on Wednesday) just based on chance alone.
What isn’t very likely, however, is for one candidate to lose ground in five of six polls if the race is still moving toward him. In other words, we can debate whether Mr. Obama has a pinch of momentum or whether the race is instead flat, but it’s improbable that Mr. Romney would have a day like this if he still had momentum.
The FiveThirtyEight model looks at a broader array of polls — including state polls — in order to gauge the overall trend in the race.
Our “now-cast” also finds a slightly favorable trend for Mr. Obama over the course of the past 10 days or so. Mr. Romney’s position peaked in the “now-cast” on Friday, Oct. 12, at which point it estimated a virtual tie in the popular vote (Mr. Obama was the projected “winner” by 0.3 percentage points). As of Wednesday, however, Mr. Obama was 1.4 percentage points ahead in the “now-cast”, meaning that he may have regained about 1 percentage point of the 4 points or so that he lost after Denver. Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College were up in the FiveThirtyEight forecast to 71 percent on Wednesday from 68.1 percent on Tuesday.
It’s not yet clear how much of this, if any, has to do with the final presidential debate in Florida this Monday, which instant polls regarded Mr. Obama as having won. Instead, it’s been more of a slow and unsteady trajectory for him, with Mr. Obama often taking two steps forward but then one step back. It’s also not out of the question that the apparent trend just represents statistical noise.
At the same time, there is more reason to take a potential change in the polls seriously if it is precipitated by a news event like the debate. The tracking polls that were released on Wednesday contained only one full day of interviews that postdated the Florida debate. If the debate moved the needle toward Mr. Obama, it should become more apparent in the coming days.
The battleground state polls that came in on Wednesday were generally very close to our model’s current projections. For instance, there were three Ohio polls published on Wednesday; one showed a tied race there, while the other two showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins of two and five points.That’s pretty much what you’d expect to see out of a trio of Ohio polls if Mr. Obama’s lead there were about two points, which is where our model now has it.
Some of the polls, especially the Time Magazine poll which had Mr. Obama five points ahead in Ohio, seemed to set off a lot of discussion on Twitter, as though people were surprised that Mr. Obama still held the lead there.
But these polls are really nothing new. Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in11 poll, to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.
Part of the confusion (and part of the reason behind the perception that Mr. Romney is still gaining ground in the race) may be because of the headlines that accompany polls.
We’re still getting some polls trickling in where the most recent comparison is to a poll conducted before the Denver debate. We should expect Mr. Romney to gain ground relative to a poll conducted before Denver. (Mr. Romney may have lost a point or so off his bounce, but he has clearly not lost all of it). But it isn’t news when he does; Mr. Romney’s Denver gains had long ago become apparent, and priced into the various polling averages and forecast models.
The question, rather, is whether Mr. Romney is gaining ground relative to the post-Denver polls — or if, as Wednesday’s polls seemed to imply, the race instead may have ticked back slightly toward Mr. Obama.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/
By NATE SILVER
The term “momentum” is used very often in political coverage — but reporters and analysts seldom pause to consider what it means.
Let me tell you what I think it ought to mean: that a body in motion tends to stay in motion. That is, it ought to imply that a candidate is gaining ground in the race — and, furthermore, that he is likely to continue to gain ground.
As a thesis or prediction about how polls behave, this notion is a bit dubious, especially in general elections. In races for the United States Senate, for instance, my research suggests that a candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month (say, from August to September) is no more likely to do so during the next one (from September to October). If anything, the candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month may be more likely to lose ground the next time around.
(Where might there be clearer evidence for momentum, as I’ve defined it? In primaries, especially when there are multiple candidates in the race and voters are behaving tactically in choosing among them. But there is little evidence of it in general elections.)
The way the term “momentum” is applied in practice by the news media, however, it usually refers only to the first part of the clause — meaning simply that a candidate has been gaining ground in the polls, whether or not he might continue to do so. (I’ve used this phrasing plenty of times myself, so I have no real basis to complain about it.)
But there are other times when the notion of momentum is behind the curve — as it probably now is if applied to Mitt Romney’s polling.
Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.
Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.
This is the closest that we’ve come in a week or so to one candidate clearly having “won” the day in the tracking polls — and it was Mr. Obama.
The trend could also be spurious. If the race is steady, it’s not that hard for one candidate to gain ground in five of six polls (excluding the two that showed no movement on Wednesday) just based on chance alone.
What isn’t very likely, however, is for one candidate to lose ground in five of six polls if the race is still moving toward him. In other words, we can debate whether Mr. Obama has a pinch of momentum or whether the race is instead flat, but it’s improbable that Mr. Romney would have a day like this if he still had momentum.
The FiveThirtyEight model looks at a broader array of polls — including state polls — in order to gauge the overall trend in the race.
Our “now-cast” also finds a slightly favorable trend for Mr. Obama over the course of the past 10 days or so. Mr. Romney’s position peaked in the “now-cast” on Friday, Oct. 12, at which point it estimated a virtual tie in the popular vote (Mr. Obama was the projected “winner” by 0.3 percentage points). As of Wednesday, however, Mr. Obama was 1.4 percentage points ahead in the “now-cast”, meaning that he may have regained about 1 percentage point of the 4 points or so that he lost after Denver. Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College were up in the FiveThirtyEight forecast to 71 percent on Wednesday from 68.1 percent on Tuesday.
It’s not yet clear how much of this, if any, has to do with the final presidential debate in Florida this Monday, which instant polls regarded Mr. Obama as having won. Instead, it’s been more of a slow and unsteady trajectory for him, with Mr. Obama often taking two steps forward but then one step back. It’s also not out of the question that the apparent trend just represents statistical noise.
At the same time, there is more reason to take a potential change in the polls seriously if it is precipitated by a news event like the debate. The tracking polls that were released on Wednesday contained only one full day of interviews that postdated the Florida debate. If the debate moved the needle toward Mr. Obama, it should become more apparent in the coming days.
The battleground state polls that came in on Wednesday were generally very close to our model’s current projections. For instance, there were three Ohio polls published on Wednesday; one showed a tied race there, while the other two showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins of two and five points.That’s pretty much what you’d expect to see out of a trio of Ohio polls if Mr. Obama’s lead there were about two points, which is where our model now has it.
Some of the polls, especially the Time Magazine poll which had Mr. Obama five points ahead in Ohio, seemed to set off a lot of discussion on Twitter, as though people were surprised that Mr. Obama still held the lead there.
But these polls are really nothing new. Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in11 poll, to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.
Part of the confusion (and part of the reason behind the perception that Mr. Romney is still gaining ground in the race) may be because of the headlines that accompany polls.
We’re still getting some polls trickling in where the most recent comparison is to a poll conducted before the Denver debate. We should expect Mr. Romney to gain ground relative to a poll conducted before Denver. (Mr. Romney may have lost a point or so off his bounce, but he has clearly not lost all of it). But it isn’t news when he does; Mr. Romney’s Denver gains had long ago become apparent, and priced into the various polling averages and forecast models.
The question, rather, is whether Mr. Romney is gaining ground relative to the post-Denver polls — or if, as Wednesday’s polls seemed to imply, the race instead may have ticked back slightly toward Mr. Obama.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/
We better know! I can't handle a recount..lol
Not sure if we will know when we wake up Nov 7th who is President.
That's for sure!
That's very true, Ms. P, and certainly, history has shown that the outcome can be different from what the polls show. It's anyone's race at this point. Romney has def tied it up pretty much.
God, this is going to be a nail biter! Yikes!
God, this is going to be a nail biter! Yikes!
So it just goes to show that ONLY poll that REALLY matters will be on Nov 6th...
Swing State Tracking:
Romney 50%, Obama 46%
47% See Better Economy With Romney, 35% With Obama
Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 47%
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46%
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%
Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
MI: O 47% R 47%...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
Romney 50%, Obama 46%
47% See Better Economy With Romney, 35% With Obama
Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 47%
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46%
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%
Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
MI: O 47% R 47%...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
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