Ongoing discussion about H1N1 Vaccine

[Quixotic1]

Well it seems that the newest fearmongering technique has been to take data from the CDC to a logical absurdity.

Why do we quake at the mere mention of Swine Flu?

First, I want to explain that this "Swine Flu" vaccine is not like the "Swine Flu vaccine of 1976.  That vaccine was made by an entirely different method, and after the large number of neurologic complications seen in 1976 that method was abandoned and is not used anymore and was not used here.  The swine Flu vaccine in 1976 caused a huge number of cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome and deaths and the immunization program's reputation in this country has never recovered EVEN THOUGH there has not been another such debacle.  GB is rare with the seasonal flu vaccine.

What do they mean by a "strain" of the flu?

The term "swine" refers to the fact that H1N1 has genes from the kind of influenza commonly seen in pigs.  Many species have influenza strains particular to them.   We have heard recently about about dog flu.  We all know about the scare with avian flu in the recent past.  Typically flu strains do not jump species.  When they do it can be particularly dangerous for the new species that they enter.

Our usual seasonal flu strains are mixtures of many of the same old genes that have been around for years.  Thus, most of the population has some on-going resistance to the full effect of the flu.  Each year scientists are in a rush to try to accurately predict which strain are going to get loose and cause the most disease.  They begin studying and doing trials in the spring of every year.  Every year the vaccine manufacturers have just a few months to come up with the vaccine for the prediction that year.  H1N1 popped up out of nowhere in the early summer.  Yes, the testing of this vaccine was rushed, but the process to make it is tried and true.  

The swine flu is pretty new to the human species.  Apparently it appeared a decade or so ago.  So few of us have any resistance to it.  Because of this more people will catch it and those that do may have a more severe disease.  It is true that the amount of time that has been available to manufacture the H1N1 vaccine has been shorter this year, but only by a couple months.  Yes, the testing for it has been more brief and not as thorough as for the usual seasonal flu.  BUT, it is important to note that the method used for the production of the H1N1 is the same method that has been shown to be safe in the past couple decades.  It is the method of producing the vaccine that is most linked to side effects.  It would be highly inaccurate to associate this swine flu vaccine with that from 33 years ago.

The testing of the H1N1 vaccine is ONGOING.  New testing has shown that pregnant women - a highly vulnerable group and one that has seen an unusual number of deaths - respond well to the vaccine and there has not been any remarkable incidence of side effects.  However, the ongoing testing is showing that children need two doses to be fully protected.  This will further decrease the number of doses that are available to the public, those at less risk of death from the infection.

Now a word of caution about a statistic that you will undoubtedly hear/read:

Now, recently the CDC announced that the rate of possible permanent harm or death from the H1N1 vaccine would be estimated to be 1 in every 100,000 shots.  The procedure implemented to report serious reactions is the most comprehensive in history.  They are tracking the living bejeebers out of this vaccine.  So far, I have not seen any reports of serious reactions.  There will be such reactions.  All things that modulate the immune system wills hsow some deadly reactions if enough people get them.  Viruses that are usually benign will kill some people.  Vaccines act just like wild viruses.  Over 16 million doses have been given out, so we might expect to hear that 160 people have suffered severe reactions.  I have been watching and no such report has yet appeared.

Several of the vehemently anti-vaccination sites are running with the "data that the CDC is expecting to see 30,000 poeple maimed or killed by this vaccine."  REALLY?  I would like to see this quote if any of you can find the speech, press release or document that says this.  If every single person in the US  (approximately 307,000,000) is vaccinated would this number stand up?  My math says that we would see only 3,000 such reactions.  Is my math correct?  If so, then someone is running amock with bad math and an agenda to boot.

I only caution you to make sure that people are quoting the CDC correctly.  To my calculations, the number of serious reactions comes closer to 3,000 EVEN IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN THE US GETS A DOSE.  Come on, people!  In a good year less than 30% of people get vaccinated.  So we might be looking at 1000 such severe reactions, not the 30,000 that I saw on at least a dozen sites this morning.  

Is the H1N1 really over estimated or over-feared?

The H1N1 pandemic is still evolving.  At first last summer it looked like the plague.  Then as it hit the US it looked a lot milder.  But, the whole thing is looking more sinister again.  At the beginning of this year's flu season (August 31)proven (lab-veriofied) H1N1 killed 64 children in the time between August 31 and October 30.  Another 10 were suspicious and definitely influenza, but they were not proven to be H1N1.  So that is 74.  H1N1 is the only strain that is currently actively causing disease in the US.  Deaths to non-pediatric patients has been about 600 in that same time period.   Yes, the math says that more than 20 people a day are dying from this in the US alone and it is just getting going.

It is well-known that the peak flu season runs November through about February or March.  We have 700 deaths already so far and the really dangerous time has not even arrived.  It seems almost every night we hear the latest number of healthy infants and young people who have died that day from H1N1.  As a pediatrician I know that the flu season often overlaps with another big killer of infants, RSV.  I literally shudder thinking about what the news is going to sound like in two months.  (For perspective the CDC states that for EACH of the last 30 years, on average, there have been 34,000 flu-related deaths in the US.  The numbers range from 20,000+ to 52,000 deaths depending on the severity of the flu season)  

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

God knows, and I believe, that everything possible is done to make our vaccines as safe as possible.  A lot was learned from 1976 and has not been repeated.  Do we hold this vaccine in fear and suspicion because of 1976?  Or do we try to estimate what really threatens us and do the best we can to protect ourselves and those around us?

Again, someone please help me find out where the CDC supposedly announced that "the H1N1 vaccine will maim or kill 30,000 people."  

I am amazed at the wide variety of numbers regarding all this that you can find on the net.  I wrote this to help people answer some questions about the "swine" flu, what it means, how it is different, whether all "swine flu" vaccines were bad and what the risk appears to be from the vaccines versus the infections themselves.

This topic may have been done to pieces already, but it was on my mind this morning when I read what seemed to me to be blatant misinformation.

Quix

[HVAC]

I just wish they had had an MS vaccine when I was a kid!

Alex

[Heather3418]

Just to say....I was one of the ones that received the "swine flu shot of 1976."  Believe it or not, I have not had the flu of any kind since.  Was it due to the swine flu shot, I doubt it.

Since I was diagnosed with MS 14 years ago, I have gotten my seasonal flu vaccine every year, with no more side effects than a sore and hot arm for a couple of days.

Quix, I believe that the H1N1 may not be widely available to the public in time to do any good.  The H1N1 is already out there in full force.  If we have to wait another month or two for the vaccine, it may be too late to build any immunity to the H1N1 flu.  Even though I medically qualify to get it now, if it were available, I am waiting for mass quantities to be released to the public, so children and pregnant mothers get their shots first.  

This flu strain is nothing to fool around with folks.  You really need to give things a second thought, when deciding on whether to get the H1N1 vaccine.  Everyone eventually getting it, will protect not only ourselves, but our babies out in this world and the precious mother's carrying our world's future....

Guess that's enough said.  Each person has to decide for themselves.  I just want to see ALL of you protected, because...DERN IT...I care about all of you and don't want to see you get sick.  This dern flu is killing people....

Big Mouth Heather

[summerluvr]

I would like to get the shot but I am sensitive to eggs (hives/ coughing) so I'm excluded.  I have had the seasonal shot a few times, but have reacted to it (hives).  

[Deb61]

Thanks for this post.  As usual, I've learn something that's going to help me make a decision.  What would we do without you on this forum?  There would be a huge gaping hole, I assure you.  

I've already had my seasonal flu shot, and will get the H1N1 as soon as they're available.

I sure hate to think of what may be coming down the pike.  It's already hit Texas pretty hard.  I've been seeing lots of kids out sick from school with flu--some of which have been out for an entire week.

[biowham]

Quix, the "I've got something to sell, by the way" is such an obvious red flag...yet people seem to have blinders on when they encounter sites like that.

I also feel the same way about workers at the CDC, WHO, et al...good, dedicated people who are struggling against two tsunamis--deadly communicable diseases that are largely preventable and the sometimes equally deadly and viral misinformation campaigns that sprout up all over the Web. And they have to put up with being called killers or accused of being "in it for the money" (um...right, but that doctor peddling his books is in it for...?). Ugh. Such frustrating nonsense.

Like you, sometimes it seems like a losing battle. But I keep fighting it. Anywhere I encounter misinformation and have the opportunity to clarify the facts, I do it. I feel that at any point that some other person can encounter this misinformation, they also ought to find the facts right there next to it.

Bio

[Quixotic1]

Ahhh, gee, Bio, my hair began falling out ages ago.

Sometimes I think I should stop trying to counter the gross misinformation that is spewed with regard to my evil profession, especially when we hear new and improved misinformation about MS from our own doctors.

Honestly, the people I worked with were largely honorable, hard-working and caring.  I have worked with people from the CDC and have never seen such a group of people so dedicated to public health and disease prevention and monitoring.

What is a gal to do?

I stopped reading Mercola shortly after I found his site in 2004.  He jumps on every fear bandwagon that pops up with his own brand of "science" all the while exhorting you to buy his book.

As you say, the risk of GBS is far more common from wild viruses or bacterial infections than it is from vaccines.  I don't believe that most people know this.

And, oh yeah, Buy my book!

Q

Q