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Are the CDC Risk Charts Out to Lunch ??
Last evening on the news three individual cases were reported on WRT HIV transmission without notifying their partners and the legal implications of doing so. I am certain this happens a great deal, but, what stood out here was the transmission rates in all 3 cases. What I found to be a discrepancy in the CDC posted rates was one guy who had sex with 15 women and 5 have contracted HIV from him, the other was 11 sex partners and 7 were infected. This math does not come close to the 1/1000 estimate for male to female, assuming it was strictly vaginal. Any comments ??
Those people that post on here in any day, the no risk out number the risks. I have no idea where you are reading but it's not from this forum. I believe I've been on this forum a little bit longer than you. We are talking about the people that post on this forum. Not the 250,000 that may be walking around not knowing they are infected.
I don't understand where your comments are coming from and yes, I have spent much time reading the Expert Forum which is what I am refering to. I would be careful stating that "99.5% of the people that post on this forum have not had a risk" From what I read a great deal of forum posts indicate either unprotected, condom breaks and several CSW episodes. This does not represent "No Risk" in any sense of the word considering 25% of HIV + people don't even know they have it.
It doesn't mean that at all. If you take the time to read the forum, 99.5% of the people that post on this forum have not had a risk. Most people that have had a risk go to their doctors or clinics and don't post on forums. Since I've been on this forum I have never seen anyone test positive.
Two things are apparent in this situation:
1. If the risks are truly 1/1000 on average (which I doubt), it would be virtually impossible for a 5/15 and 7/11 transmission rate for these two HIV positive men to spread their virus. This works out to 1/3 and >1/2 transmission rates.
2. I doubt that most people who are writing to this site have actually had sex with HIV + partners and this is why there have been virtually no reported back positive cases, with the exception of one in May on the HIV Expert Forum where the guy had sex once with an HIV + African CSW and did report a positive result. This supports the numbers on the news last night and more evidence that 1/1000 is possibly inaccurate.
1. If the risks are truly 1/1000 on average (which I doubt), it would be virtually impossible for a 5/15 and 7/11 transmission rate for these two HIV positive men to spread their virus. This works out to 1/3 and >1/2 transmission rates.
2. I doubt that most people who are writing to this site have actually had sex with HIV + partners and this is why there have been virtually no reported back positive cases, with the exception of one in May on the HIV Expert Forum where the guy had sex once with an HIV + African CSW and did report a positive result. This supports the numbers on the news last night and more evidence that 1/1000 is possibly inaccurate.
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