Ongoing discussion about H1N1 Vaccine

[Quixotic1]

Well it seems that the newest fearmongering technique has been to take data from the CDC to a logical absurdity.

Why do we quake at the mere mention of Swine Flu?

First, I want to explain that this "Swine Flu" vaccine is not like the "Swine Flu vaccine of 1976.  That vaccine was made by an entirely different method, and after the large number of neurologic complications seen in 1976 that method was abandoned and is not used anymore and was not used here.  The swine Flu vaccine in 1976 caused a huge number of cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome and deaths and the immunization program's reputation in this country has never recovered EVEN THOUGH there has not been another such debacle.  GB is rare with the seasonal flu vaccine.

What do they mean by a "strain" of the flu?

The term "swine" refers to the fact that H1N1 has genes from the kind of influenza commonly seen in pigs.  Many species have influenza strains particular to them.   We have heard recently about about dog flu.  We all know about the scare with avian flu in the recent past.  Typically flu strains do not jump species.  When they do it can be particularly dangerous for the new species that they enter.

Our usual seasonal flu strains are mixtures of many of the same old genes that have been around for years.  Thus, most of the population has some on-going resistance to the full effect of the flu.  Each year scientists are in a rush to try to accurately predict which strain are going to get loose and cause the most disease.  They begin studying and doing trials in the spring of every year.  Every year the vaccine manufacturers have just a few months to come up with the vaccine for the prediction that year.  H1N1 popped up out of nowhere in the early summer.  Yes, the testing of this vaccine was rushed, but the process to make it is tried and true.  

The swine flu is pretty new to the human species.  Apparently it appeared a decade or so ago.  So few of us have any resistance to it.  Because of this more people will catch it and those that do may have a more severe disease.  It is true that the amount of time that has been available to manufacture the H1N1 vaccine has been shorter this year, but only by a couple months.  Yes, the testing for it has been more brief and not as thorough as for the usual seasonal flu.  BUT, it is important to note that the method used for the production of the H1N1 is the same method that has been shown to be safe in the past couple decades.  It is the method of producing the vaccine that is most linked to side effects.  It would be highly inaccurate to associate this swine flu vaccine with that from 33 years ago.

The testing of the H1N1 vaccine is ONGOING.  New testing has shown that pregnant women - a highly vulnerable group and one that has seen an unusual number of deaths - respond well to the vaccine and there has not been any remarkable incidence of side effects.  However, the ongoing testing is showing that children need two doses to be fully protected.  This will further decrease the number of doses that are available to the public, those at less risk of death from the infection.

Now a word of caution about a statistic that you will undoubtedly hear/read:

Now, recently the CDC announced that the rate of possible permanent harm or death from the H1N1 vaccine would be estimated to be 1 in every 100,000 shots.  The procedure implemented to report serious reactions is the most comprehensive in history.  They are tracking the living bejeebers out of this vaccine.  So far, I have not seen any reports of serious reactions.  There will be such reactions.  All things that modulate the immune system wills hsow some deadly reactions if enough people get them.  Viruses that are usually benign will kill some people.  Vaccines act just like wild viruses.  Over 16 million doses have been given out, so we might expect to hear that 160 people have suffered severe reactions.  I have been watching and no such report has yet appeared.

Several of the vehemently anti-vaccination sites are running with the "data that the CDC is expecting to see 30,000 poeple maimed or killed by this vaccine."  REALLY?  I would like to see this quote if any of you can find the speech, press release or document that says this.  If every single person in the US  (approximately 307,000,000) is vaccinated would this number stand up?  My math says that we would see only 3,000 such reactions.  Is my math correct?  If so, then someone is running amock with bad math and an agenda to boot.

I only caution you to make sure that people are quoting the CDC correctly.  To my calculations, the number of serious reactions comes closer to 3,000 EVEN IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN THE US GETS A DOSE.  Come on, people!  In a good year less than 30% of people get vaccinated.  So we might be looking at 1000 such severe reactions, not the 30,000 that I saw on at least a dozen sites this morning.  

Is the H1N1 really over estimated or over-feared?

The H1N1 pandemic is still evolving.  At first last summer it looked like the plague.  Then as it hit the US it looked a lot milder.  But, the whole thing is looking more sinister again.  At the beginning of this year's flu season (August 31)proven (lab-veriofied) H1N1 killed 64 children in the time between August 31 and October 30.  Another 10 were suspicious and definitely influenza, but they were not proven to be H1N1.  So that is 74.  H1N1 is the only strain that is currently actively causing disease in the US.  Deaths to non-pediatric patients has been about 600 in that same time period.   Yes, the math says that more than 20 people a day are dying from this in the US alone and it is just getting going.

It is well-known that the peak flu season runs November through about February or March.  We have 700 deaths already so far and the really dangerous time has not even arrived.  It seems almost every night we hear the latest number of healthy infants and young people who have died that day from H1N1.  As a pediatrician I know that the flu season often overlaps with another big killer of infants, RSV.  I literally shudder thinking about what the news is going to sound like in two months.  (For perspective the CDC states that for EACH of the last 30 years, on average, there have been 34,000 flu-related deaths in the US.  The numbers range from 20,000+ to 52,000 deaths depending on the severity of the flu season)  

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

God knows, and I believe, that everything possible is done to make our vaccines as safe as possible.  A lot was learned from 1976 and has not been repeated.  Do we hold this vaccine in fear and suspicion because of 1976?  Or do we try to estimate what really threatens us and do the best we can to protect ourselves and those around us?

Again, someone please help me find out where the CDC supposedly announced that "the H1N1 vaccine will maim or kill 30,000 people."  

I am amazed at the wide variety of numbers regarding all this that you can find on the net.  I wrote this to help people answer some questions about the "swine" flu, what it means, how it is different, whether all "swine flu" vaccines were bad and what the risk appears to be from the vaccines versus the infections themselves.

This topic may have been done to pieces already, but it was on my mind this morning when I read what seemed to me to be blatant misinformation.

Quix

[Lulu54]

today I asked three MS experts - two neuros and one MS nurse - about the vaccines for MS patients.  It was not only unanimous, but also emphatic from all three that MS patients should have the seasonal and the H1N1 vaccines UNLESS there is some other underlying condition that would dictate otherwise.

Their reasoning is what quix said above - getting either variety of the flu would likely cause the mother of all relapses because of the fever and fighting the germs.  That relapse could very well cause new PERMANENT disabilities among us.  

It is interesting how the MS neuros have conflicting opinions - for me I would rather not risk any more damage.  I will take the H1N1 when it becomes available and I have already had my seasonal vaccine.  

Meaganj, I hope that you are well now.  So sorry you encountered this nasty bug.  

BTW, the latest H1N1 death close to me was a 38 year old healthy Police officer. First responders (police and medical folks) are in that first wave of people eligible for the vaccine, but there  has to be vaccine available.  Here's hoping the production glitches will be corrected soon.  

my best,
Lulu

[Meaganj]

I would definitely suggest anyone that is at higher risk for complications get the H1N1 vaccine and the regular flu vaccine I got the swine flu earlier this fall and while it wasn't any different than any other flu i've had in my life, I had a fever of over 100 for 8 days which raised my body temp and started me into a relapse. No Fun!!!
M

[GeeWhillikers]

This is actually Quix on my sister's computer.

It seems that some of us have reasons to believe that we will be harmed by this vaccine.  If we are advised by our doctors that it is not a good idea, then we should respect that.  If we believe that we would be far better off getting the infection over receiving the vaccine and nothing will change that - then discussion is moot.

Plateletgal - If you believe that this vaccine is likely to harm you permanently, then by all means give it a pass and take your chances with the infection itself.  I really don't think that anyone here will work to convince you otherwise.

For those of you that are still seeking information, not having a preconceived idea about the vaccine's safety, then that is what we are presenting.

Khiba - a couple people have been told by their neurologists to avoid the vaccine.  It would be very nice to hear their reasoning.  I believe you should comply with the advice given by the medical provider that you have chose to trust.  However, I believe than that you should, then, make extra efforts to avoid the infection, including urging those around you to get vaccinated to avoid exposing you.  And, if you get the H1N1 flu, then move heaven and earth to avoid giving it to others, especially those in a high-risk group.

The actual infection of the flu can stimulate the mother of all relapses in people who are sensitive to stimulation of the immune system.  Remember that an actual infection stimulates the immune system for far longer, and to a much greater degree, than a vaccine does.  The effect of the infection itself should be a large part of what we consider when we look at the vaccine.  This means not only looking at what the infection will do to us, but also looking at who else we might infect if we get infected.   I'm not sure that I could live with myself if I caught the flu and gave it to someone who then died of it.

In the end, it may be out of our hands, for a while.  With the supply of H1N1 vaccine being delayed and in short supply, and with the new info that children will need two doses to develop full immunity, it may be months before we (as a second-line high risk group) can get access to it.

This strain of the flu will likely be with us for at least the next year and a half.  Pandemics don't respect the yearly cycle like seasonal flu seems to.  That means that even if the vaccine arrives for us some months down the line, we should still receive it.

Also, everyone should know that there are two different flu vaccines to receive:  the normal seasonal vaccine (yearly flu shot) and the H1N1.  So if you got your regular flu shot, you will likely have protection from the seasonal flu, which is not yet making the rounds in full force.  You still need to receive the H1N1 shot (not nasal mist) UNLESS of course, you are a person with a definite reason not to or you refuse to.  This is still all voluntary.

I have to say that, given the many dozens of millions of doses already given of the H1N1 vaccine worldwide, that a couple/several deaths in one country (Sweden) are what is being used to warn us that this vaccine is likely to be horribly unsafe (see above for the discussion of possible serious or fatal reactions).  Given the kinds of terrifying warnings that are sweeping the internet we should already be seeing hundreds of these reactions and deaths here in this country.  Approximately 20 million doses have been given out here.  Yet all I am seeing are reports of deaths in previously healthy children and yound adults and pregnant women from the H1N1 infection itself.

Quix

[Khiba]

I asked my Neurologist on Wednesday if I should get the H1N1 vaccine and the answer was emphatically NO. I didn't get a why not though.

[biowham]

Platelet Gal...I think you must have misread something. I'm agreeing with you in my post. I completely understand what you're saying. My point is that the rest of us should be vaccinated if possible just to protect populations, like yours, that cannot be.

The only two deaths I can find in Sweden were two elderly people--one in their 70s and one who was 90--who had severe chronic conditions and who died a few days after receiving a flu vaccination. That's not causative or even plausible as a link given their age and condition.

Bio

[PlateletGal]

The majority of people can tolerate vaccinations. But for those of us who cannot, it is horrible what we experience and I, and some of my physicians agree, that if I continue to get vaccinations that harm me, then it could hurt my overall health. There are some CFS patients who are now bedridden because of vaccinations. So although most people don't understand.... the fibro/CFS experts do. You might want to check out my concerns that I posted months ago to Prof. Garth Nicolson.

http://www.medhelp.org/posts/Autoimmune-Disorders/Swine-Flu-Concerns/show/1024327

I think I will ask Prof. Nicolson again about the safety of this vaccination and especially about the deaths in Europe. We all need to make an informed decision and especially people like me who cannot tolerate some vaccinations. For those people who are in the same boat that I'm in.... they understand.